Zibo Cuju 1–0 Shenzhen Ruby FC: Result & Stats

Zibo Cuju

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shenzhen Ruby FC

11/17/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundDalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zibo Cuju64%

×Draw24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo CujuExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.53

Zibo Cuju

1.60

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.53

Zibo Cuju creates 202% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.80

0.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Zibo Cuju

2.00

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.80

allows per match

Zibo Cuju

0.25

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw

88%

Zibo Cuju or Shenzhen Ruby FC

76%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

36%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

35%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

80%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

47%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

22%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

41%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

10%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

84%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 2.00 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.80 + Zibo Cuju defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more

64%

level

24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

12%

Zibo Cuju at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zibo Cuju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff