Zibo Cuju 2–0 Shanghai Jiading: Result & Stats

Zibo Cuju

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shanghai Jiading

7/28/2022

League One · Round 11Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju42%

×Draw29%

Shanghai Jiading29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo CujuExpected goals in this matchShanghai Jiading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.98

Zibo Cuju

1.25

Shanghai Jiading

0.98

Zibo Cuju creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 62 away

0.97

creates per match

0.58

1.38

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Zibo Cuju

0.97

Shanghai Jiading

0.58

allows per match

Zibo Cuju

1.38

Shanghai Jiading

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Shanghai Jiading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw

71%

Zibo Cuju or Shanghai Jiading

71%

Draw or Shanghai Jiading

58%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

19%

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

71%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

36%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

13%

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

62%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

26%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

59%

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more

42%

level

29%

Shanghai Jiading scores more

29%

Zibo Cuju at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zibo Cuju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff