Zibo Cuju 0–4 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

Zibo Cuju

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Nantong Zhiyun

7/8/2022

League One · Round 8Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju26%

×Draw27%

Nantong Zhiyun47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo CujuExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.38

Zibo Cuju

0.96

Nantong Zhiyun

1.38

Nantong Zhiyun creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 77 away

0.97

creates per match

1.38

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Zibo Cuju

0.97

Nantong Zhiyun

1.38

allows per match

Zibo Cuju

1.38

Nantong Zhiyun

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw

53%

Zibo Cuju or Nantong Zhiyun

73%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

74%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

9%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

62%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

25%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

7%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

75%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

40%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

36%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more

26%

level

27%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

47%

Nantong Zhiyun at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff