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Zibo Cuju vs Nanjing City — League One 2018

Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nanjing City
Nanjing City
12/21/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 24Chengdu Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju35%
×Draw28%
Nanjing City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Cuju
1.16
Nanjing City
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

creates per match

Zibo Cuju
0.97
Nanjing City
1.03

allows per match

Zibo Cuju
1.38
Nanjing City
1.35

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par
Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Nanjing City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw
63%
Zibo Cuju or Nanjing City
72%
Draw or Nanjing City
65%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
14%
Nanjing City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
69%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
32%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
11%
Nanjing City 1+ goals
70%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
34%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
48%
Nanjing City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more
35%
level
28%
Nanjing City scores more
37%

Nanjing City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Cuju vs Nanjing City

Zibo Cuju beat Nanjing City 2-1 in League One on December 21, 2021.

The match was played at Chengdu Sports Center in Chengdu.