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Zibo Cuju vs Jiangxi Liansheng — League One 2018

Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
12/4/2022League OneLeague One · Round 33Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju39%
×Draw27%
Jiangxi Liansheng34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Cuju
1.28
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 73 away

creates per match

Zibo Cuju
0.97
Jiangxi Liansheng
0.95

allows per match

Zibo Cuju
1.38
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.59

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par
Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw
66%
Zibo Cuju or Jiangxi Liansheng
73%
Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng
61%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
17%
Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
72%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
37%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
14%
Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
69%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
33%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
54%
Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more
39%
level
27%
Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
34%

Zibo Cuju at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zibo Cuju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Zibo Cuju 1–2 Jiangxi Liansheng

Jiangxi Liansheng beat Zibo Cuju 2-1 in League One on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Puwan Outfield in Dalian.