Zibo Cuju 0–1 Guizhou Zhicheng: Result & Stats

Zibo Cuju

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guizhou Zhicheng

9/13/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 11Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju35%

×Draw28%

Guizhou Zhicheng37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo CujuExpected goals in this matchGuizhou Zhicheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.21

Zibo Cuju

1.15

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 40 away

0.97

creates per match

1.05

1.38

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Zibo Cuju

0.97

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.05

allows per match

Zibo Cuju

1.38

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw

63%

Zibo Cuju or Guizhou Zhicheng

72%

Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng

65%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

14%

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

68%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

32%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

11%

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

70%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

34%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

48%

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more

35%

level

28%

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

37%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff