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Zhytomyr U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — U19 League 2023

Zhytomyr U19
Zhytomyr U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
12/15/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 17Spartak-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zhytomyr U1928%
×Draw22%
Shakhtar Donetsk U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhytomyr U19
1.39
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.94

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zhytomyr U19
1.73
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.80

allows per match

Zhytomyr U19
1.09
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.04

finishing

Zhytomyr U19+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhytomyr U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zhytomyr U19 or draw
50%
Zhytomyr U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
78%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
72%

Winning margin

Zhytomyr U19 wins by 2+
12%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Zhytomyr U19 1+ goals
75%
Zhytomyr U19 2+ goals
40%
Zhytomyr U19 3+ goals
16%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
86%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
58%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Zhytomyr U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhytomyr U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhytomyr U19 attack 1.73 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.80 + Zhytomyr U19 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zhytomyr U19 scores more
28%
level
22%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
50%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhytomyr U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 beat Zhytomyr U19 1-0 in U19 League on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Spartak-Arena in Zhytomyr.