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Zhytomyr U19 vs Oleksandria U19 — U19 League 2023

Zhytomyr U19
Zhytomyr U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oleksandria U19
Oleksandria U19
3/8/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 20Spartak-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zhytomyr U1951%
×Draw23%
Oleksandria U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhytomyr U19
1.83
Oleksandria U19
1.25

Zhytomyr U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zhytomyr U19
1.73
Oleksandria U19
1.40

allows per match

Zhytomyr U19
1.09
Oleksandria U19
1.93

finishing

Zhytomyr U19+0.00on par
Oleksandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhytomyr U19 ↓

Oleksandria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zhytomyr U19 or draw
74%
Zhytomyr U19 or Oleksandria U19
77%
Draw or Oleksandria U19
49%

Winning margin

Zhytomyr U19 wins by 2+
28%
Oleksandria U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zhytomyr U19 1+ goals
84%
Zhytomyr U19 2+ goals
54%
Zhytomyr U19 3+ goals
28%
Oleksandria U19 1+ goals
71%
Oleksandria U19 2+ goals
36%
Oleksandria U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zhytomyr U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Oleksandria U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhytomyr U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

Oleksandria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhytomyr U19 attack 1.73 + Oleksandria U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Oleksandria U19 attack 1.40 + Zhytomyr U19 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zhytomyr U19 scores more
51%
level
23%
Oleksandria U19 scores more
26%

Zhytomyr U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zhytomyr U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhytomyr U19 vs Oleksandria U19

Zhytomyr U19 and Oleksandria U19 drew 1-1 in U19 League on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Spartak-Arena in Zhytomyr.