Zhytomyr U19 vs Obolon' Kyiv U19 — U19 League 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
Zhytomyr U1953%
Obolon' Kyiv U1922%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Zhytomyr U19 creates 68% more chances
Season form · 45 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Zhytomyr U19 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Zhytomyr U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches
Obolon' Kyiv U19 away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Zhytomyr U19 attack 1.73 + Obolon' Kyiv U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63
Obolon' Kyiv U19 attack 0.84 + Zhytomyr U19 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Zhytomyr U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Zhytomyr U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Dynamo Kyiv U19
Veres Rivne U19
Rukh Vynnyky U19Zhytomyr U19
Zorya Luhansk U19
Kolos Kovalivka U19
Metalist 1925 U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19Obolon' Kyiv U19
Karpaty Lviv U19
Kryvbas 2020 U19
Oleksandria U19
Kudrivka U19
Epitsentr U19
SK Poltava U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Zhytomyr U19 host Obolon' Kyiv U19 on Saturday, 24 August 2024 at 09:00. The match is part of the U19 League 2023/2024 season.
U19 League: Zhytomyr U19 1–0 Obolon' Kyiv U19
Zhytomyr U19 beat Obolon' Kyiv U19 1-0 in U19 League on August 24, 2024.
The match was played at Spartak-Arena in Zhytomyr.