Zhytomyr U19 2–3 Dnipro-1 U19: Result & Stats

Zhytomyr U19

FT

2 – 3

Dnipro-1 U19

12/7/2023

U19 League · Round 17Spartak-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zhytomyr U1939%

×Draw25%

Dnipro-1 U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhytomyr U19Expected goals in this matchDnipro-1 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.38

Zhytomyr U19

1.46

Dnipro-1 U19

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

1.67

1.09

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Zhytomyr U19

1.73

Dnipro-1 U19

1.67

allows per match

Zhytomyr U19

1.09

Dnipro-1 U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhytomyr U19+0.00on par

Dnipro-1 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhytomyr U19 ↓

Dnipro-1 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zhytomyr U19 or draw

64%

Zhytomyr U19 or Dnipro-1 U19

75%

Draw or Dnipro-1 U19

61%

Winning margin

Zhytomyr U19 wins by 2+

19%

Dnipro-1 U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zhytomyr U19 1+ goals

77%

Zhytomyr U19 2+ goals

43%

Zhytomyr U19 3+ goals

18%

Dnipro-1 U19 1+ goals

75%

Dnipro-1 U19 2+ goals

40%

Dnipro-1 U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zhytomyr U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Dnipro-1 U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhytomyr U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

Dnipro-1 U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhytomyr U19 attack 1.73 + Dnipro-1 U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dnipro-1 U19 attack 1.67 + Zhytomyr U19 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zhytomyr U19 scores more

39%

level

25%

Dnipro-1 U19 scores more

36%

Zhytomyr U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zhytomyr U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff