Zhytomyr U19 3–1 Chornomorets U19: Result & Stats

Zhytomyr U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Chornomorets U19

3/29/2024

U19 League · Round 22Spartak-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zhytomyr U1960%

×Draw22%

Chornomorets U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhytomyr U19Expected goals in this matchChornomorets U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.98

Zhytomyr U19

1.95

Chornomorets U19

0.98

Zhytomyr U19 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.73

creates per match

0.87

1.09

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Zhytomyr U19

1.73

Chornomorets U19

0.87

allows per match

Zhytomyr U19

1.09

Chornomorets U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhytomyr U19+0.00on par

Chornomorets U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhytomyr U19 ↓

Chornomorets U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zhytomyr U19 or draw

82%

Zhytomyr U19 or Chornomorets U19

78%

Draw or Chornomorets U19

40%

Winning margin

Zhytomyr U19 wins by 2+

36%

Chornomorets U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zhytomyr U19 1+ goals

86%

Zhytomyr U19 2+ goals

58%

Zhytomyr U19 3+ goals

31%

Chornomorets U19 1+ goals

62%

Chornomorets U19 2+ goals

26%

Chornomorets U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zhytomyr U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Chornomorets U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhytomyr U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

Chornomorets U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhytomyr U19 attack 1.73 + Chornomorets U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Chornomorets U19 attack 0.87 + Zhytomyr U19 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zhytomyr U19 scores more

60%

level

22%

Chornomorets U19 scores more

18%

Zhytomyr U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zhytomyr U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff