Zhytlobud-2 W 1–1 Vllaznia W: Result & Stats

Zhytlobud-2 W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vllaznia W

R. Kravchuk 66'

M. Doçi 54'

9/21/2022

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundStadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zhytlobud-2 W90%

×Draw7%

Vllaznia W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhytlobud-2 WExpected goals in this matchVllaznia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

0.56

Zhytlobud-2 W

3.63

Vllaznia W

0.56

Zhytlobud-2 W creates 548% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

4.25

creates per match

0.63

0.50

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Zhytlobud-2 W

4.25

Vllaznia W

0.63

allows per match

Zhytlobud-2 W

0.50

Vllaznia W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhytlobud-2 W+0.00on par

Vllaznia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhytlobud-2 W ↓

Vllaznia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Zhytlobud-2 W or draw

97%

Zhytlobud-2 W or Vllaznia W

93%

Draw or Vllaznia W

10%

Winning margin

Zhytlobud-2 W wins by 2+

76%

Vllaznia W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Zhytlobud-2 W 1+ goals

97%

Zhytlobud-2 W 2+ goals

87%

Zhytlobud-2 W 3+ goals

68%

Vllaznia W 1+ goals

43%

Vllaznia W 2+ goals

11%

Vllaznia W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Zhytlobud-2 W (draw refunded)

97%

Vllaznia W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhytlobud-2 W at home — creates 4.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Vllaznia W away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhytlobud-2 W attack 4.25 + Vllaznia W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.63

Vllaznia W attack 0.63 + Zhytlobud-2 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Zhytlobud-2 W scores more

90%

level

7%

Vllaznia W scores more

3%

Zhytlobud-2 W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Zhytlobud-2 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

M. Šaranović← V. Kloss

34'

40'

54'

65'

66'

70'

R. Ramadani← Veronica

Zhytlobud-2

Vllaznia

33

Williams-

6

Maliqi

19

Gjergji

4

▼

14

15

8

26

11

⚽

Doçi

31

A

▼

9

23

99

17

29

88

20

22

⚽

16

9

10

5

Manager: N. Zinchenko

Zhytlobud-2 W substitutes

71Bondarchuk21Andrushchak19Zabytivska15Chuvylka18Herasymchuk4Kotyk

Manager: N. Leka

33'▲M. Šaranović←▼V. Kloss

70'▲R. Ramadani←▼Veronica

Vllaznia W substitutes

24Šaranović10Ramadani21Kodra3Curraj12Rexhepi17Lufo18Borci30Giddes2Vuksani13Piranaj1Raxhimi16Gjini

UEFA Champions League Women: Zhytlobud-2 W 1–1 Vllaznia W

Zhytlobud-2 W and Vllaznia W drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 21, 2022.

Goals: M. Doçi (54'), R. Kravchuk (66').

The match was played at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in Shkodër.

Zhytlobud-2 W vs Vllaznia W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women: Zhytlobud-2 W 1–1 Vllaznia W