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Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs Torpedo Zhodino — Coppa 2019

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodinoadvanced
6/22/2022CoppaCoppa · Round of 32Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe42%
×Draw22%
Torpedo Zhodino37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

creates per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
3.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.88

allows per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.79

finishing

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par
Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhodino Yuzhnoe ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or draw
63%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe or Torpedo Zhodino
78%
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
58%

Winning margin

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
23%
Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
85%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
56%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
29%
Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
83%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
53%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
53%
Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 3.00 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.88 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
42%
level
22%
Torpedo Zhodino scores more
37%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs Torpedo Zhodino

Torpedo Zhodino beat Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2-0 in Coppa on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda in Zhodino.