Zhodino Yuzhnoe 5–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

10/28/2023

1. Division · Round 30Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe49%

×Draw22%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 429%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhodino YuzhnoeExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.44

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.91

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.44

Zhodino Yuzhnoe creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 54 away

1.94

creates per match

1.31

1.56

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.94

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

allows per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.56

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhodino Yuzhnoe ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or draw

71%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

78%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

51%

Winning margin

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+

27%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals

85%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals

57%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals

30%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

76%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

42%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)

62%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.91

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.31 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more

49%

level

22%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

29%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff