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Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
10/14/20231. Division1. Division · Round 28Stadyen FLC Oktyabrsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe33%
×Draw22%
ML Vitebsk45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.67
ML Vitebsk
1.96

ML Vitebsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
ML Vitebsk
2.36

allows per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.56
ML Vitebsk
1.40

finishing

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhodino Yuzhnoe ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or draw
55%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe or ML Vitebsk
78%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
67%

Winning margin

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
16%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
81%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
50%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
23%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
86%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
58%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
43%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
33%
level
22%
ML Vitebsk scores more
45%

ML Vitebsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs ML Vitebsk

Zhodino Yuzhnoe beat ML Vitebsk 4-1 in 1. Division on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen FLC Oktyabrsky in Oktyabrsky.