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Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs Bumprom — 1. Division 2018

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bumprom
Bumprom
11/25/20231. Division1. Division · Round 34Stadyen FLC Oktyabrsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe44%
×Draw24%
Bumprom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.69
Bumprom
1.42

Zhodino Yuzhnoe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 56 away

creates per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Bumprom
1.27

allows per match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.56
Bumprom
1.43

finishing

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par
Bumprom+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhodino Yuzhnoe ↓

Bumprom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zhodino Yuzhnoe or draw
68%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe or Bumprom
76%
Draw or Bumprom
56%

Winning margin

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
23%
Bumprom wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
82%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
50%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
24%
Bumprom 1+ goals
76%
Bumprom 2+ goals
41%
Bumprom 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
58%
Bumprom (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Bumprom away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Bumprom defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bumprom attack 1.27 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
44%
level
24%
Bumprom scores more
32%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs Bumprom

Bumprom beat Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3-2 in 1. Division on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen FLC Oktyabrsky in Oktyabrsky.