Zhetysu 0–0 Kaspiy: Result & Stats | Cup

Zhetysu

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kaspiy

8/1/2021

Cup · Group Stage - 3Ortalıq Stadion Jetisu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zhetysu37%

×Draw35%

Kaspiy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZhetysuExpected goals in this matchKaspiy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.73

Zhetysu

0.90

Kaspiy

0.73

Zhetysu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

0.63

creates per match

1.33

0.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Zhetysu

0.63

Kaspiy

1.33

allows per match

Zhetysu

0.13

Kaspiy

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhetysu+0.00on par

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu ↓

Kaspiy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Zhetysu or draw

72%

Zhetysu or Kaspiy

65%

Draw or Kaspiy

63%

Winning margin

Zhetysu wins by 2+

13%

Kaspiy wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zhetysu 1+ goals

59%

Zhetysu 2+ goals

23%

Zhetysu 3+ goals

6%

Kaspiy 1+ goals

52%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

17%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu (draw refunded)

57%

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.13 · 8 matches

Kaspiy away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu attack 0.63 + Kaspiy defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kaspiy attack 1.33 + Zhetysu defence 0.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zhetysu scores more

37%

level

35%

Kaspiy scores more

28%

Zhetysu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zhetysu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff