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Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2025

Zhetysu
Zhetysu
Preview
10:00
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
10/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29
Big match
39%
FK Tobol Kostanay
model favours
32%29%39%

Zhetysu score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zhetysu32%
×Draw29%
FK Tobol Kostanay39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu
1.01
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zhetysu
0.75
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.17

allows per match

Zhetysu
1.13
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27

finishing

Zhetysu+0.00on par
FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zhetysu or draw
61%
Zhetysu or FK Tobol Kostanay
71%
Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay
68%

Winning margin

Zhetysu wins by 2+
12%
FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zhetysu 1+ goals
64%
Zhetysu 2+ goals
27%
Zhetysu 3+ goals
8%
FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
68%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
32%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu (draw refunded)
45%
FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu attack 0.75 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.01

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.17 + Zhetysu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zhetysu scores more
32%
level
29%
FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
39%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Zhetysu’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s matches
  • 24% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zhetysu
LLWDD
Kostanay
WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zhetysu host FK Tobol Kostanay

October 19, 2026: Zhetysu take on FK Tobol Kostanay in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.