Zhetysu 1–2 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Zhetysu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

S. Takulov 4'

N. Signevich 66'

M. Vukcevic 55'

10/19/2025

Premier League · Round 25Ortalyq stadıon Jetisu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zhetysu32%

×Draw29%

FK Tobol Kostanay39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZhetysuExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.15

Zhetysu

1.01

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.15

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 30 away

0.75

creates per match

1.17

1.13

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Zhetysu

0.75

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.17

allows per match

Zhetysu

1.13

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhetysu+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zhetysu or draw

61%

Zhetysu or FK Tobol Kostanay

71%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

68%

Winning margin

Zhetysu wins by 2+

12%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zhetysu 1+ goals

64%

Zhetysu 2+ goals

27%

Zhetysu 3+ goals

8%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

68%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

32%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu (draw refunded)

45%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu attack 0.75 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.01

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.17 + Zhetysu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zhetysu scores more

32%

level

29%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

39%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

8'

46'

55'

64'

R. Karimov← B. Shaykhov

64'

D. Esimbekov← A. Chochiev

66'

N. Signevich↳ M. Vukcevic

70'

M. Kovel← M. Karwot

71'

Z. Mukhametkhanov← S. Takulov

71'

Victor Braga← A. Tagybergen

77'

Miras Omatay

82'

Dmitry Schmidt

84'

A. Aymanov← M. Buya Turay

85'

S. Umarov← A. Zuev

90+4'

A. Bakitzhanov← I. Chesnokov

Zhetysu

FK

44

Ustimenko

78

Khvalko

17

▼

Zuev

13

Mosiashvi

15

⚽A

Vukcevic

18

▼

Tagyberge

6

Ededem

27

Zhagorov

11

▼

Chesnokov

14

⚽

Signevich

8

▼

78

93

27

55

▼

Karwot

15

Schmidt

11

▼

Chochiev

9

Fofanah

23

▼

Shaykhov

10

⚽

▼

Takulov

74

Raphael

95

▼

Turay

64'▲R. Karimov←▼B. Shaykhov

64'▲D. Esimbekov←▼A. Chochiev

70'▲M. Kovel←▼M. Karwot

71'▲Z. Mukhametkhanov←▼S. Takulov

84'▲A. Aymanov←▼M. Buya Turay

Zhetysu substitutes

77Orynbasar73Kurmanakhan44Talgat31Golubnichiy22Karimov19Serikkul17Esimbekov14Mukhametkhanov8Aymanov7Nurbol6Akhmedov5Kovel

46'▲Henrique←▼B. Galym

71'▲Victor Braga←▼A. Tagybergen

85'▲S. Umarov←▼A. Zuev

90+4'▲A. Bakitzhanov←▼I. Chesnokov

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

99Henrique70Umarov38Bakitzhanov35Melikhov33Pivovarov16Braga10Messaoudi1Busurmanov