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Zhetysu II vs SDYuShOR 8 — 1. Division 2019

Zhetysu II
Zhetysu II
FT
3 – 0
SDYuShOR 8
SDYuShOR 8
D. Kalybayev 88'
A. Seitov 49'
B. Shamshi 74'
Unknown 67'
10/31/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 14Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zhetysu II49%
×Draw23%
SDYuShOR 828%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu II
1.79
SDYuShOR 8
1.29

Zhetysu II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zhetysu II
2.26
SDYuShOR 8
1.83

allows per match

Zhetysu II
0.74
SDYuShOR 8
1.33

finishing

Zhetysu II+0.00on par
SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu II ↓

SDYuShOR 8 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zhetysu II or draw
72%
Zhetysu II or SDYuShOR 8
77%
Draw or SDYuShOR 8
51%

Winning margin

Zhetysu II wins by 2+
27%
SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zhetysu II 1+ goals
83%
Zhetysu II 2+ goals
53%
Zhetysu II 3+ goals
26%
SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals
72%
SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals
37%
SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu II (draw refunded)
64%
SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

SDYuShOR 8 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu II attack 2.26 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

SDYuShOR 8 attack 1.83 + Zhetysu II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zhetysu II scores more
49%
level
23%
SDYuShOR 8 scores more
28%

Zhetysu II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
A. Seitov
67'
74'
B. Shamshi
88'
D. Kalybayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zhetysu II 3 – 0 SDYuShOR 8

Zhetysu II beat SDYuShOR 8 3-0 in 1. Division on October 31, 2020.

Goals: A. Seitov (49'), ? (67'), B. Shamshi (74'), D. Kalybayev (88').

The match was played at Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 3 in Shymkent.