Zhetysu II 0–1 Atyrau: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Zhetysu II

FT

0 – 1

Atyrau

9/18/2020

1. Division · Group 1 - 2UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zhetysu II44%

×Draw23%

Atyrau33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zhetysu IIExpected goals in this matchAtyrau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.54

Zhetysu II

1.79

Atyrau

1.54

Zhetysu II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

2.26

creates per match

2.33

0.74

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Zhetysu II

2.26

Atyrau

2.33

allows per match

Zhetysu II

0.74

Atyrau

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zhetysu II+0.00on par

Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu II ↓

Atyrau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zhetysu II or draw

67%

Zhetysu II or Atyrau

77%

Draw or Atyrau

56%

Winning margin

Zhetysu II wins by 2+

23%

Atyrau wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zhetysu II 1+ goals

83%

Zhetysu II 2+ goals

53%

Zhetysu II 3+ goals

26%

Atyrau 1+ goals

79%

Atyrau 2+ goals

45%

Atyrau 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu II (draw refunded)

57%

Atyrau (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Atyrau away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu II attack 2.26 + Atyrau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atyrau attack 2.33 + Zhetysu II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zhetysu II scores more

44%

level

23%

Atyrau scores more

33%

Zhetysu II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff