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Zhetysu II vs Akzhayik — 1. Division 2019

Zhetysu II
Zhetysu II
FT
3 – 2
Akzhayik
Akzhayik
10/19/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 10BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zhetysu II56%
×Draw23%
Akzhayik21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhetysu II
1.82
Akzhayik
1.04

Zhetysu II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

creates per match

Zhetysu II
2.26
Akzhayik
1.34

allows per match

Zhetysu II
0.74
Akzhayik
1.38

finishing

Zhetysu II+0.00on par
Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhetysu II ↓

Akzhayik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zhetysu II or draw
79%
Zhetysu II or Akzhayik
77%
Draw or Akzhayik
44%

Winning margin

Zhetysu II wins by 2+
32%
Akzhayik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zhetysu II 1+ goals
84%
Zhetysu II 2+ goals
54%
Zhetysu II 3+ goals
27%
Akzhayik 1+ goals
65%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
28%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zhetysu II (draw refunded)
72%
Akzhayik (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhetysu II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhetysu II attack 2.26 + Akzhayik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.82

Akzhayik attack 1.34 + Zhetysu II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zhetysu II scores more
56%
level
23%
Akzhayik scores more
21%

Zhetysu II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zhetysu II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhetysu II vs Akzhayik

Zhetysu II beat Akzhayik 3-2 in 1. Division on October 19, 2020.

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.