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Zhejiang Yiteng vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
5/16/2018League OneLeague One · Round 12Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zhejiang Yiteng62%
×Draw20%
Xinjiang Tianshan17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhejiang Yiteng
2.11
Xinjiang Tianshan
1.01

Zhejiang Yiteng creates 109% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
2.07
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
1.40
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhejiang Yiteng ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zhejiang Yiteng or draw
83%
Zhejiang Yiteng or Xinjiang Tianshan
80%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
38%

Winning margin

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
39%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
88%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
62%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
35%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
64%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
27%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
78%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhejiang Yiteng at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 2.07 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.11

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
62%
level
20%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
17%

Zhejiang Yiteng at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zhejiang Yiteng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhejiang Yiteng vs Xinjiang Tianshan

Zhejiang Yiteng beat Xinjiang Tianshan 1-0 in League One on May 16, 2018.

The match was played at Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing).