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Zhejiang Yiteng vs liaoning hongyun FC — League One 2018

Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
10/28/2018League OneLeague One · Round 29Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zhejiang Yiteng54%
×Draw22%
liaoning hongyun FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhejiang Yiteng
1.97
liaoning hongyun FC
1.25

Zhejiang Yiteng creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
2.07
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

allows per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
1.40
liaoning hongyun FC
1.87

finishing

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par
liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhejiang Yiteng ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zhejiang Yiteng or draw
76%
Zhejiang Yiteng or liaoning hongyun FC
78%
Draw or liaoning hongyun FC
46%

Winning margin

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
31%
liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
86%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
58%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
31%
liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
71%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
36%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
69%
liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhejiang Yiteng at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 2.07 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.97

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
54%
level
22%
liaoning hongyun FC scores more
24%

Zhejiang Yiteng at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Zhejiang Yiteng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Zhejiang Yiteng 1–1 liaoning hongyun FC

Zhejiang Yiteng and liaoning hongyun FC drew 1-1 in League One on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing).