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Zhejiang Yiteng vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
5/20/2018League OneLeague One · Round 13Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Zhejiang Yiteng49%
×Draw24%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhejiang Yiteng
1.70
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.22

Zhejiang Yiteng creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 124 away

creates per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
2.00
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
1.31
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhejiang Yiteng ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zhejiang Yiteng or draw
73%
Zhejiang Yiteng or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
76%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
51%

Winning margin

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
26%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
82%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
51%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
24%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
70%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
34%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
64%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhejiang Yiteng at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 2.00 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
49%
level
24%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
27%

Zhejiang Yiteng at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zhejiang Yiteng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhejiang Yiteng vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Zhejiang Yiteng beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-2 in League One on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing).