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Zhejiang Yiteng vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
5/27/2018League OneLeague One · Round 10Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zhejiang Yiteng59%
×Draw21%
Dalian Transcendence20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zhejiang Yiteng
2.04
Dalian Transcendence
1.10

Zhejiang Yiteng creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
2.07
Dalian Transcendence
0.80

allows per match

Zhejiang Yiteng
1.40
Dalian Transcendence
2.00

finishing

Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zhejiang Yiteng ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zhejiang Yiteng or draw
80%
Zhejiang Yiteng or Dalian Transcendence
79%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
41%

Winning margin

Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
36%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
87%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
60%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
33%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
67%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
30%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
75%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zhejiang Yiteng at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 2.07 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
59%
level
21%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
20%

Zhejiang Yiteng at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zhejiang Yiteng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zhejiang Yiteng vs Dalian Transcendence

Zhejiang Yiteng beat Dalian Transcendence 3-1 in League One on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Textile City Sports Center (Shaoxing).