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1º de Agosto vs Porcelana — Girabola 2019

1º de Agosto
1º de Agosto
FT
2 – 1
Porcelana
Porcelana
4/24/2016GirabolaGirabola · Round 9Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1º de Agosto72%
×Draw20%
Porcelana8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Agosto
1.91
Porcelana
0.48

1º de Agosto creates 298% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 6 away

creates per match

1º de Agosto
1.82
Porcelana
0.33

allows per match

1º de Agosto
0.63
Porcelana
2.00

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par
Porcelana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Porcelana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw
92%
1º de Agosto or Porcelana
80%
Draw or Porcelana
28%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+
45%
Porcelana wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals
85%
1º de Agosto 2+ goals
57%
1º de Agosto 3+ goals
30%
Porcelana 1+ goals
38%
Porcelana 2+ goals
8%
Porcelana 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)
89%
Porcelana (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.63 · 109 matches

Porcelana away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.82 + Porcelana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Porcelana attack 0.33 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

1º de Agosto scores more
72%
level
20%
Porcelana scores more
8%

1º de Agosto at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: 1º de Agosto 2–1 Porcelana

1º de Agosto beat Porcelana 2-1 in Girabola on April 24, 2016.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.