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07 Vestur vs AB II — 1. Deild 2019

07 Vestur
07 Vestur
FT
2 – 0
AB II
AB II
6/6/20201. Deild1. Deild · Round 6á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

07 Vestur63%
×Draw19%
AB II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

07 Vestur
2.42
AB II
1.22

07 Vestur creates 98% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

creates per match

07 Vestur
2.44
AB II
1.07

allows per match

07 Vestur
1.37
AB II
2.40

finishing

07 Vestur+0.00on par
AB II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur ↓

AB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

07 Vestur or draw
82%
07 Vestur or AB II
81%
Draw or AB II
37%

Winning margin

07 Vestur wins by 2+
41%
AB II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

07 Vestur 1+ goals
91%
07 Vestur 2+ goals
69%
07 Vestur 3+ goals
43%
AB II 1+ goals
70%
AB II 2+ goals
34%
AB II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur (draw refunded)
78%
AB II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

AB II away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur attack 2.44 + AB II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.42

AB II attack 1.07 + 07 Vestur defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

07 Vestur scores more
63%
level
19%
AB II scores more
18%

07 Vestur at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "07 Vestur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

07 Vestur 2 – 0 AB II

07 Vestur beat AB II 2-0 in 1. Deild on June 6, 2020.

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.