ZFC Meuselwitz 0–3 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

ZFC Meuselwitz

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

Lucas Cini 76', 22'

M. Wolf 37'

4/19/2026

League #85 · Nordost - 30bluechip-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ZFC Meuselwitz34%

×Draw22%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZFC MeuselwitzExpected goals in this matchFC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.94

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.67

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

1.94

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

1.64

2.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.33

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

1.64

allows per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

2.25

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZFC Meuselwitz ↓

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

ZFC Meuselwitz or draw

56%

ZFC Meuselwitz or FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

78%

Draw or FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

66%

Winning margin

ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+

17%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals

81%

ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals

50%

ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals

23%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1+ goals

86%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2+ goals

58%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)

43%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZFC Meuselwitz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 1.33 + FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt attack 1.64 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ZFC Meuselwitz scores more

34%

level

22%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt scores more

44%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Lucas Cini

37'

M. Wolf

76'

Lucas Cini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff