ZFC Meuselwitz 1–3 Carl Zeiss Jena: Result & Stats

ZFC Meuselwitz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Carl Zeiss Jena

F. Hansch 20'

F. Eisele 71', 59'

S. Albert 32' (OG)

8/21/2021

League #85 · Nordost - 7bluechip-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

ZFC Meuselwitz23%

×Draw21%

Carl Zeiss Jena56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZFC MeuselwitzExpected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.13

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.31

Carl Zeiss Jena

2.13

Carl Zeiss Jena creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

2.25

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.33

Carl Zeiss Jena

2.00

allows per match

ZFC Meuselwitz

2.25

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZFC Meuselwitz ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

ZFC Meuselwitz or draw

44%

ZFC Meuselwitz or Carl Zeiss Jena

79%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena

77%

Winning margin

ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+

10%

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals

73%

ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals

38%

ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals

14%

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

88%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

63%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)

29%

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZFC Meuselwitz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 1.33 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 2.00 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ZFC Meuselwitz scores more

23%

level

21%

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

56%

Carl Zeiss Jena at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

F. Stenzel← J. Jagupov

20'

F. Hansch

31'

F. Raithel← N. Miatke

32'

S. AlbertOwn goal

57'

A. Prokopenko← M. Krauß

59'

F. Eisele

67'

L. Bürger← F. Stenzel

67'

R. Weinert← F. Hansch

67'

B. Förster← A. Trübenbach

70'

J. Schau← L. Bürger

71'

F. Eisele

81'

T. Bergmann← M. Langer

81'

V. Dedidis← F. Eisele

ZFC

Carl

22

6

5

15

19

▼

Langer

21

Stauffer

8

▼

Bürger

7

Oesterhel

23

⚽2

▼

Eisele

9

Wolfram

11

▼

Krauß

32

Guderitz

19

🥅

Albert

28

▼

Miatke

24

Müller

2

Moritz

22

⚽

▼

Hansch

17

Kadrić

21

Zintsch

9

▼

Trübenbac

20

Jahn

11

▼

Jagupov

Manager: H. Pinder

5'▲F. Stenzel←▼J. Jagupov

31'▲F. Raithel←▼N. Miatke

67'▲L. Bürger←▼F. Stenzel

67'▲R. Weinert←▼F. Hansch

67'▲B. Förster←▼A. Trübenbach

ZFC Meuselwitz substitutes

10Stenzel16Raithel6Bürger8Weinert23Förster1Fietz25Tuncer

Manager: D. Kunert

57'▲A. Prokopenko←▼M. Krauß

70'▲J. Schau←▼L. Bürger

81'▲T. Bergmann←▼M. Langer

81'▲V. Dedidis←▼F. Eisele

Carl Zeiss Jena substitutes

24Prokopenko25Schau10Bergmann13Dedidis1Sedlak17Wolf20Lange