FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2–1 ZFC Meuselwitz

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

ZFC Meuselwitz

H. Muqaj 81'

B. Zank 31'

L. Hoxha 29'

7/16/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Carl Zeiss Jena42%

×Draw21%

ZFC Meuselwitz37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Carl Zeiss JenaExpected goals in this matchZFC Meuselwitz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.96

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

2.09

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

2.73

creates per match

2.45

1.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

2.73

ZFC Meuselwitz

2.45

allows per match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

1.47

ZFC Meuselwitz

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

ZFC Meuselwitz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

ZFC Meuselwitz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

FC Carl Zeiss Jena or draw

63%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena or ZFC Meuselwitz

79%

Draw or ZFC Meuselwitz

58%

Winning margin

FC Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

24%

ZFC Meuselwitz wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

88%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

62%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

34%

ZFC Meuselwitz 1+ goals

86%

ZFC Meuselwitz 2+ goals

58%

ZFC Meuselwitz 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

FC Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

53%

ZFC Meuselwitz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

ZFC Meuselwitz away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena attack 2.73 + ZFC Meuselwitz defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.09

ZFC Meuselwitz attack 2.45 + FC Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

42%

level

21%

ZFC Meuselwitz scores more

37%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

L. Hoxha

31'

B. Zank

81'

H. Muqaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff