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Zeta vs Mladost Lješkopolje — Second League 2025

Zeta
Zeta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
A. Krstovic 40'
4/1/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zeta41%
×Draw29%
Mladost Lješkopolje30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeta
1.18
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.97

Zeta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Zeta
0.88
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.05

allows per match

Zeta
0.88
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.48

finishing

Zeta+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeta ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zeta or draw
70%
Zeta or Mladost Lješkopolje
71%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
59%

Winning margin

Zeta wins by 2+
17%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zeta 1+ goals
69%
Zeta 2+ goals
33%
Zeta 3+ goals
12%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
62%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
25%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zeta (draw refunded)
58%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeta at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeta attack 0.88 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.05 + Zeta defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zeta scores more
41%
level
29%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
30%

Zeta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
A. Krstovic
90'
A. Tuzovic
90'
A. Tuzovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeta vs Mladost Lješkopolje

Zeta beat Mladost Lješkopolje 1-0 in Second League on April 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Krstovic (40').

The match was played at Stadion Trešnjica in Golubovci.