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Zeta vs Kom — Second League 2025

Zeta
Zeta
Preview
17:00
Kom
Kom
9/30/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 9
Big match
36%
Zeta
model favours
36%30%35%

Kom score first in only 5% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zeta36%
×Draw30%
Kom35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeta
1.07
Kom
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Zeta
0.67
Kom
1.43

allows per match

Zeta
0.67
Kom
1.48

finishing

Zeta+0.00on par
Kom+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeta ↓

Kom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zeta or draw
65%
Zeta or Kom
70%
Draw or Kom
64%

Winning margin

Zeta wins by 2+
14%
Kom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zeta 1+ goals
66%
Zeta 2+ goals
29%
Zeta 3+ goals
9%
Kom 1+ goals
65%
Kom 2+ goals
28%
Kom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zeta (draw refunded)
51%
Kom (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Kom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeta attack 0.67 + Kom defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kom attack 1.43 + Zeta defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zeta scores more
36%
level
30%
Kom scores more
35%

Zeta at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Zeta
DDDWL
Kom
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zeta face Kom (Second League)

Second League returns with Zeta hosting Kom. Match starts September 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.