Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kom vs Zeta — Second League 2025

Kom
Kom
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zeta
Zeta
Unknown 82', 45+1'
4/8/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Stadion FK Kom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kom45%
×Draw31%
Zeta24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom
1.13
Zeta
0.74

Kom creates 53% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kom
1.14
Zeta
0.67

allows per match

Kom
0.81
Zeta
1.11

finishing

Kom+0.00on par
Zeta+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Zeta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kom or draw
76%
Kom or Zeta
69%
Draw or Zeta
55%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+
19%
Zeta wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals
68%
Kom 2+ goals
31%
Kom 3+ goals
11%
Zeta 1+ goals
52%
Zeta 2+ goals
17%
Zeta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)
65%
Zeta (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Zeta away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.14 + Zeta defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Zeta attack 0.67 + Kom defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kom scores more
45%
level
31%
Zeta scores more
24%

Kom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kom 2 – 0 Zeta

Kom beat Zeta 2-0 in Second League on April 8, 2023.

Goals: ? (45+1', 82').

The match was played at Stadion FK Kom in Podgorica.