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Zeta vs Berane — Second League 2025

Zeta
Zeta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Berane
Berane
8/21/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2Stadion Trešnjica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zeta29%
×Draw34%
Berane37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeta
0.79
Berane
0.94

Berane creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zeta
0.88
Berane
1.00

allows per match

Zeta
0.88
Berane
0.70

finishing

Zeta+0.00on par
Berane+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeta ↓

Berane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Zeta or draw
63%
Zeta or Berane
66%
Draw or Berane
71%

Winning margin

Zeta wins by 2+
9%
Berane wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zeta 1+ goals
55%
Zeta 2+ goals
19%
Zeta 3+ goals
5%
Berane 1+ goals
61%
Berane 2+ goals
24%
Berane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zeta (draw refunded)
44%
Berane (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeta at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Berane away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeta attack 0.88 + Berane defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Berane attack 1.00 + Zeta defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zeta scores more
29%
level
34%
Berane scores more
37%

Berane at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Berane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeta vs Berane

Zeta and Berane drew 0-0 in Second League on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trešnjica in Golubovci.