Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zestafoni vs Merani Tbilisi — Liga 3 2024

Zestafoni
Zestafoni
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
5/30/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zestafoni42%
×Draw26%
Merani Tbilisi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zestafoni
1.40
Merani Tbilisi
1.18

Zestafoni creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Zestafoni
1.27
Merani Tbilisi
1.16

allows per match

Zestafoni
1.20
Merani Tbilisi
1.53

finishing

Zestafoni+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zestafoni ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zestafoni or draw
68%
Zestafoni or Merani Tbilisi
74%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
58%

Winning margin

Zestafoni wins by 2+
20%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zestafoni 1+ goals
75%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
41%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
17%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
69%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
33%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zestafoni (draw refunded)
57%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zestafoni at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zestafoni attack 1.27 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.16 + Zestafoni defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zestafoni scores more
42%
level
26%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
32%

Zestafoni at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zestafoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zestafoni vs Merani Tbilisi

Zestafoni and Merani Tbilisi drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on May 30, 2024.