Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zestafoni vs Merani Martvili — Liga 3 2024

Zestafoni
Zestafoni
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
11/14/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zestafoni35%
×Draw28%
Merani Martvili37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zestafoni
1.14
Merani Martvili
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zestafoni
1.27
Merani Martvili
1.13

allows per match

Zestafoni
1.20
Merani Martvili
1.00

finishing

Zestafoni+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zestafoni ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zestafoni or draw
63%
Zestafoni or Merani Martvili
72%
Draw or Merani Martvili
65%

Winning margin

Zestafoni wins by 2+
14%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zestafoni 1+ goals
68%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
32%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
11%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
69%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
33%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zestafoni (draw refunded)
49%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zestafoni at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zestafoni attack 1.27 + Merani Martvili defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Merani Martvili attack 1.13 + Zestafoni defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zestafoni scores more
35%
level
28%
Merani Martvili scores more
37%

Merani Martvili at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zestafoni vs Merani Martvili

Zestafoni and Merani Martvili drew 0-0 in Liga 3 on November 14, 2024.