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Zestafoni vs Irao — Liga 3 2024

Zestafoni
Zestafoni
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Irao
Irao
8/29/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zestafoni30%
×Draw26%
Irao45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zestafoni
1.16
Irao
1.49

Irao creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

creates per match

Zestafoni
1.27
Irao
1.78

allows per match

Zestafoni
1.20
Irao
1.05

finishing

Zestafoni+0.00on par
Irao+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zestafoni ↓

Irao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zestafoni or draw
55%
Zestafoni or Irao
74%
Draw or Irao
70%

Winning margin

Zestafoni wins by 2+
12%
Irao wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Zestafoni 1+ goals
69%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
32%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
11%
Irao 1+ goals
77%
Irao 2+ goals
44%
Irao 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zestafoni (draw refunded)
40%
Irao (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zestafoni at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Irao away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zestafoni attack 1.27 + Irao defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Irao attack 1.78 + Zestafoni defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zestafoni scores more
30%
level
26%
Irao scores more
45%

Irao at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Irao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zestafoni vs Irao

Irao beat Zestafoni 2-1 in Liga 3 on August 29, 2024.