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ZESCO United vs Nkwazi — Super League 2019

ZESCO United
ZESCO United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nkwazi
Nkwazi
12/6/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

ZESCO United49%
×Draw29%
Nkwazi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZESCO United
1.29
Nkwazi
0.76

ZESCO United creates 70% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

ZESCO United
1.65
Nkwazi
0.82

allows per match

ZESCO United
0.70
Nkwazi
0.93

finishing

ZESCO United+0.00on par
Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZESCO United ↓

Nkwazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ZESCO United or draw
78%
ZESCO United or Nkwazi
71%
Draw or Nkwazi
51%

Winning margin

ZESCO United wins by 2+
23%
Nkwazi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ZESCO United 1+ goals
72%
ZESCO United 2+ goals
37%
ZESCO United 3+ goals
14%
Nkwazi 1+ goals
53%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
18%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ZESCO United (draw refunded)
69%
Nkwazi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZESCO United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZESCO United attack 1.65 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + ZESCO United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ZESCO United scores more
49%
level
29%
Nkwazi scores more
22%

ZESCO United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ZESCO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: ZESCO United 0–1 Nkwazi

Nkwazi beat ZESCO United 1-0 in Super League on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium in Ndola.