ZESCO United 1–2 Mufulira Wanderers: Result & Stats

ZESCO United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Mufulira Wanderers

2/22/2026

Super League · Round 21Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

ZESCO United57%

×Draw27%

Mufulira Wanderers16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZESCO UnitedExpected goals in this matchMufulira Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.61

ZESCO United

1.42

Mufulira Wanderers

0.61

ZESCO United creates 133% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 60 away

1.65

creates per match

0.52

0.70

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

ZESCO United

1.65

Mufulira Wanderers

0.52

allows per match

ZESCO United

0.70

Mufulira Wanderers

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZESCO United ↓

Mufulira Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ZESCO United or draw

84%

ZESCO United or Mufulira Wanderers

73%

Draw or Mufulira Wanderers

43%

Winning margin

ZESCO United wins by 2+

29%

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ZESCO United 1+ goals

76%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

41%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

17%

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals

46%

Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals

13%

Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

78%

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZESCO United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Mufulira Wanderers away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZESCO United attack 1.65 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mufulira Wanderers attack 0.52 + ZESCO United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

ZESCO United scores more

57%

level

27%

Mufulira Wanderers scores more

16%

ZESCO United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "ZESCO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff