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Zenith vs Tvååker — Svenska Cupen 2019

Zenith
Zenith
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tvååker
Tvååker
6/25/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundHovgårdsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zenith8%
×Draw17%
Tvååker75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenith
0.57
Tvååker
2.20

Tvååker creates 286% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zenith
0.75
Tvååker
2.40

allows per match

Zenith
2.00
Tvååker
0.40

finishing

Zenith+0.00on par
Tvååker+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenith ↓

Tvååker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–215%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zenith or draw
25%
Zenith or Tvååker
83%
Draw or Tvååker
92%

Winning margin

Zenith wins by 2+
2%
Tvååker wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Zenith 1+ goals
43%
Zenith 2+ goals
11%
Zenith 3+ goals
2%
Tvååker 1+ goals
89%
Tvååker 2+ goals
64%
Tvååker 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Zenith (draw refunded)
10%
Tvååker (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenith at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Tvååker away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenith attack 0.75 + Tvååker defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.57

Tvååker attack 2.40 + Zenith defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Zenith scores more
8%
level
17%
Tvååker scores more
75%

Tvååker at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Zenith 0–3 Tvååker

Tvååker beat Zenith 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on June 25, 2024.

The match was played at Hovgårdsvallen in Kvisljungeby.