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Zenith vs IFK Goteborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Zenith
Zenith
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
8/23/2023Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundHovgårdsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zenith14%
×Draw19%
IFK Goteborg67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenith
0.91
IFK Goteborg
2.24

IFK Goteborg creates 146% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zenith
0.75
IFK Goteborg
2.47

allows per match

Zenith
2.00
IFK Goteborg
1.06

finishing

Zenith+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenith ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zenith or draw
33%
Zenith or IFK Goteborg
81%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
86%

Winning margin

Zenith wins by 2+
4%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Zenith 1+ goals
60%
Zenith 2+ goals
23%
Zenith 3+ goals
6%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
89%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
65%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Zenith (draw refunded)
17%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenith at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenith attack 0.75 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + Zenith defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Zenith scores more
14%
level
19%
IFK Goteborg scores more
67%

IFK Goteborg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Zenith 0–2 IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat Zenith 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Hovgårdsvallen in Kvisljungeby.