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Zenit W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Zenit W
Zenit W
Preview
11:00
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Lokomotiv Moskva W
10/31/2026Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 24Akademiya Zenit pole 5
Big match
42%
Zenit W
model favours
42%27%31%

Zenit W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Zenit W42%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv Moskva W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit W
1.38
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.15

Zenit W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

creates per match

Zenit W
2.09
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.76

allows per match

Zenit W
0.53
Lokomotiv Moskva W
0.67

finishing

Zenit W+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit W ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zenit W or draw
69%
Zenit W or Lokomotiv Moskva W
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva W
58%

Winning margin

Zenit W wins by 2+
20%
Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zenit W 1+ goals
75%
Zenit W 2+ goals
40%
Zenit W 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals
32%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zenit W (draw refunded)
57%
Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit W at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.53 · 76 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit W attack 2.09 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 1.76 + Zenit W defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zenit W scores more
42%
level
27%
Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more
31%

Zenit W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zenit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Zenit W 1 vs Lokomotiv Moskva W 4
  • Zenit W win just 47% against the top half (vs 79% against the bottom)
  • Lokomotiv Moskva W win just 41% against the top half (vs 79% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDWWW
W
DDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W — Match Preview

Zenit W face Lokomotiv Moskva W on October 31, 2026 in this Supreme Division Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zenit W host Lokomotiv Moskva W at Akademiya Zenit pole 5.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.