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Zenit vs Spartak Moscow — Cup 2019

Zenit
Zenit
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscowadvanced
4/8/2026CupCup · Semi-finalsGazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zenit56%
×Draw23%
Spartak Moscow21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
1.82
Spartak Moscow
1.02

Zenit creates 78% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.39
Spartak Moscow
1.61

allows per match

Zenit
0.43
Spartak Moscow
1.25

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
79%
Zenit or Spartak Moscow
77%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
44%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
32%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
84%
Zenit 2+ goals
54%
Zenit 3+ goals
27%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
64%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
27%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
73%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.39 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + Zenit defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zenit scores more
56%
level
23%
Spartak Moscow scores more
21%

Zenit at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit vs Spartak Moscow

Zenit and Spartak Moscow drew 0-0 in Cup on April 8, 2026.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg.