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Zenit vs FC Krasnodar — Premier League 2018

Zenit
Zenit
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
4/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Zenit52%
×Draw23%
FC Krasnodar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
1.84
FC Krasnodar
1.19

Zenit creates 55% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.53
FC Krasnodar
1.61

allows per match

Zenit
0.76
FC Krasnodar
1.16

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

FC Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
75%
Zenit or FC Krasnodar
77%
Draw or FC Krasnodar
48%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
29%
FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
84%
Zenit 2+ goals
55%
Zenit 3+ goals
28%
FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
70%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
33%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
68%
FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.84

FC Krasnodar attack 1.61 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zenit scores more
52%
level
23%
FC Krasnodar scores more
25%

Zenit at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Zenit 4–1 FC Krasnodar

Zenit beat FC Krasnodar 4-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in St. Petersburg.