Zenit 1–0 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Zenit

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Samarqand

A. Erokhin 5'

2/9/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit66%

×Draw18%

Dinamo Samarqand15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZenitExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.04

Zenit

2.35

Dinamo Samarqand

1.04

Zenit creates 126% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

2.53

creates per match

1.33

0.76

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Zenit

2.53

Dinamo Samarqand

1.33

allows per match

Zenit

0.76

Dinamo Samarqand

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Zenit or draw

85%

Zenit or Dinamo Samarqand

82%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

34%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+

43%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals

90%

Zenit 2+ goals

68%

Zenit 3+ goals

41%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)

81%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.35

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.33 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zenit scores more

66%

level

18%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

15%

Zenit at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Erokhin

46'

E. Latyshonok← D. Adamov

55'

58'

75'

A. Kasadzhikov← A. Mostovoy

Zenit

Dinamo

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Sergey Semak

46'▲E. Latyshonok←▼D. Adamov

75'▲A. Kasadzhikov←▼A. Mostovoy

Zenit substitutes

Latyshonok41KerzhakovMoskvichev59Kasadzhikov31Mantuan78Diveev33Nino3Santos5Barrios8Wendel20PedrinhoGlushenkov11HenriqueJhon7Sobolev

Manager: Vadim Abramov

Friendlies Clubs: Zenit 1–0 Dinamo Samarqand

Zenit beat Dinamo Samarqand 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 9, 2026.

Goals: A. Erokhin (5').

Zenit vs Dinamo Samarqand — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Zenit 1–0 Dinamo Samarqand