Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala: Preview & Prediction

Zenit

Preview

15:00

Dinamo Makhachkala

10/24/2026

Premier League · Round 12Gazprom Arena

Big match

69%

Zenit

model favours

69%20%11%

Zenit are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

41%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Zenit69%

×Draw20%

Dinamo Makhachkala11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZenitExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.64

Zenit

1.97

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.64

Zenit creates 208% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

2.53

creates per match

0.52

0.76

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Zenit

2.53

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.52

allows per match

Zenit

0.76

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zenit or draw

89%

Zenit or Dinamo Makhachkala

80%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

31%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+

43%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals

86%

Zenit 2+ goals

58%

Zenit 3+ goals

31%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

47%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

14%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)

86%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zenit scores more

69%

level

20%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

11%

Zenit at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Zenit have scored in 12 games running
Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
Zenit have won 6 of the last 7 meetings
Zenit score first in 67% of matches
Style contrast — Zenit play Possession-dominant, Dinamo Makhachkala Direct / counter-attacking
Zenit sit 1, Dinamo Makhachkala 12 in the table