Zenit 1–1 Dinamo Makhachkala: Result & Stats

Zenit

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Makhachkala

Andrey Mostovoy 90+4' (pen)

Valdemiro Pinto Domingos 16'

7/13/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Zenit51%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Makhachkala24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZenitExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.03

Zenit

1.61

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.03

Zenit creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

2.53

creates per match

1.30

0.76

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Zenit

2.53

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.30

allows per match

Zenit

0.76

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zenit or draw

76%

Zenit or Dinamo Makhachkala

75%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

49%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals

80%

Zenit 2+ goals

48%

Zenit 3+ goals

22%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

64%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)

68%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.53 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.30 + Zenit defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zenit scores more

51%

level

25%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

24%

Zenit at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Valdemiro Pinto Domingos↳ Mohamed Azzi

46'

Evgeny Latyshonok← Bogdan Moskvichev

46'

Dmitriy Vasiljev← Igor Diveev

46'

Du Queiroz← Felipe Augusto

46'

David Volk← Timur Magomedov

46'

Daniil Lesovoy← Valdemiro Pinto Domingos

46'

Aleksandr Sandrachuk← Mohamed Azzi

46'

Vladimir Khubulov← Andres Alarcon

63'

Mohammad Javad Hosseinnejad← Gamid Agalarov

68'

Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov← Nikita Glushkov

72'

Matvey Bardachev← Vyacheslav Karavaev

76'

Soslan Kagermazov← Houssem Mrezigue

84'

Vanja Drkusic

90+4'

Andrey MostovoyPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff