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Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Cup 2019

Zenit
Zenit
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
9/1/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 3Gazprom Arena
Big match
60%
Zenit
model favours
60%22%17%

Zenit are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Zenit60%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Makhachkala17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
1.86
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.88

Zenit creates 111% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.39
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

allows per match

Zenit
0.43
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
83%
Zenit or Dinamo Makhachkala
78%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
40%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
35%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
84%
Zenit 2+ goals
55%
Zenit 3+ goals
28%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
22%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
78%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.39 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + Zenit defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zenit scores more
60%
level
22%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
17%

Zenit at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Zenit have scored in 12 games running
  • Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
  • Zenit have won 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • Zenit score first in 67% of matches
  • Zenit win 80% of their home games
  • 67% of Zenit’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zenit
DWWDW
Makhachkala
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zenit host Dinamo Makhachkala

September 1, 2026: Zenit take on Dinamo Makhachkala in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zenit host Dinamo Makhachkala at Gazprom Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.