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Zenit vs Akron — Cup 2019

Zenit
Zenit
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Akron
Akron
10/2/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Zenit65%
×Draw19%
Akron16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
2.20
Akron
0.99

Zenit creates 122% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 11 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.39
Akron
1.55

allows per match

Zenit
0.43
Akron
2.00

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
84%
Zenit or Akron
81%
Draw or Akron
35%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
41%
Akron wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
89%
Zenit 2+ goals
64%
Zenit 3+ goals
37%
Akron 1+ goals
63%
Akron 2+ goals
26%
Akron 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
80%
Akron (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Akron away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.39 + Akron defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Akron attack 1.55 + Zenit defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Zenit scores more
65%
level
19%
Akron scores more
16%

Zenit at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit 5 – 1 Akron

Zenit beat Akron 5-1 in Cup on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in St. Petersburg.